Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 November 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Nov, 21 Nov, 22 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 538 km/s at 19/0019Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 18/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 18/2102Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 298 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (21 Nov, 22 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Nov 108
Predicted 20 Nov-22 Nov 108/108/110
90 Day Mean 19 Nov 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov 014/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov 011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 008/010-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 25/20/20