Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 November 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
19/1026Z from Region 1893 (S13W77). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (20 Nov) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on days two and three (21 Nov, 22 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 432 km/s at
19/1729Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4 pfu at 19/1825Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (20 Nov, 21 Nov, 22
Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on
day one (20 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
Class M 40/30/30
Class X 10/05/01
Proton 30/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Nov 153
Predicted 20 Nov-22 Nov 150/140/140
90 Day Mean 19 Nov 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov 002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10