Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 May 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 19/0719Z from Region 3017 (N13E27). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 May, 21 May, 22 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 563 km/s at 19/1719Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 19/1319Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 19/1943Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 201 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (21 May, 22 May).

III. Event probabilities 20 May-22 May
Class M 40/35/30
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 May 173
Predicted 20 May-22 May 172/170/170
90 Day Mean 19 May 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 May 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May 010/012-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May-22 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/20
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 40/30/25