Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 May 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 May, 21 May, 22 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 455 km/s at 19/0659Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 19/2047Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 19/2050Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 605 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (20 May, 21 May, 22 May).

III.  Event probabilities 20 May-22 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 May 068
Predicted   20 May-22 May 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        19 May 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 May  008/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May  007/008-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May-22 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/25/25