Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 May 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 May, 21 May, 22 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 455 km/s at 19/0659Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 19/2047Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 19/2050Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 605 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (20 May, 21 May, 22 May).
III. Event probabilities 20 May-22 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 May 068
Predicted 20 May-22 May 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 19 May 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 May 008/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May 007/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May-22 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/25/25