Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 May 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 May, 21 May, 22 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 445 km/s at 18/2229Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 636 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (20 May, 21 May, 22 May).
III. Event probabilities 20 May-22 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 May 070
Predicted 20 May-22 May 069/068/068
90 Day Mean 19 May 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 May 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May-22 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10