Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 May 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
May 19, 2015
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 May 2015

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2015

 

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 19/1159Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

 

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 May, 21 May, 22 May).

 

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 576 km/s at 19/1351Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 19/0053Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 18/2159Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 163 pfu.

 

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (21 May) and quiet levels on day three (22 May).

 

III.  Event probabilities 20 May-22 May

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

 

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           19 May 110

Predicted   20 May-22 May 108/105/105

90 Day Mean        19 May 128

 

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 18 May  015/014

Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May  016/022

Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May  011/012-008/008-006/005

 

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May-22 May

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                25/20/10

Minor Storm           05/05/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/20

Minor Storm           25/25/20

Major-severe storm    30/25/10

 

SpaceRef staff editor.