Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 19/1159Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 May, 21 May, 22 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 576 km/s at 19/1351Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 19/0053Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 18/2159Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 163 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (21 May) and quiet levels on day three (22 May).
III. Event probabilities 20 May-22 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 May 110
Predicted 20 May-22 May 108/105/105
90 Day Mean 19 May 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 May 015/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May 016/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May 011/012-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May-22 May
