Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 March 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 79 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar, 22 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 510 km/s at 19/0730Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 19/0728Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 19/0029Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 212 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar, 22 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Mar 072
Predicted 20 Mar-22 Mar 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 19 Mar 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar 007/008-007/008-006/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/25/25