Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 March 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 78 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar, 22 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 417 km/s at 19/2029Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 19/1525Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 19/1401Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1367 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (20 Mar) and quiet levels on days two and three (21 Mar, 22 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Mar 070
Predicted 20 Mar-22 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 19 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar 009/010-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/15/15