Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 March 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 78 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar, 22 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 417 km/s at 19/2029Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 19/1525Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 19/1401Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1367 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (20 Mar) and quiet levels on days two and three (21 Mar, 22 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Mar 070
Predicted   20 Mar-22 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        19 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar  009/010-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    30/15/15