Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 March 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 78 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar, 22 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 330 km/s at 19/1355Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 865 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (20 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (21 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (22 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Mar 071
Predicted   20 Mar-22 Mar 070/070/071
90 Day Mean        19 Mar 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar  006/005-007/008-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/20/30