Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 March 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 79 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar, 22 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 493 km/s at 19/1728Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 19/0511Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 19/0552Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 980 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar, 22 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Mar 089
Predicted 20 Mar-22 Mar 090/090/085
90 Day Mean 19 Mar 103

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar 006/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar 015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar 006/005-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/25