Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 78 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 18/2301Z from Region 2302 (N10W73). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (20 Mar) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day two (21 Mar) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (22 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 762 km/s at 18/2125Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 19/0754Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 19/0754Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 14939 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and three (20 Mar, 22 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (21 Mar). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (20 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
Class M 20/10/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 10/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Mar 109
Predicted 20 Mar-22 Mar 110/105/105
90 Day Mean 19 Mar 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar 032/046
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar 022/027
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar 015/018-007/008-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
