Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 June 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 19/2010Z from Region 3038 (N15E06). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Jun, 21 Jun, 22 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 633 km/s at 19/1024Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 19/1259Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 18/2249Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2950 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (20 Jun) and quiet levels on days two and three (21 Jun, 22 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jun 144
Predicted 20 Jun-22 Jun 138/134/125
90 Day Mean 19 Jun 129

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun 015/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jun 012/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun 010/010-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/10/10