Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 June 2019

By SpaceRef Editor
June 19, 2019
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 Jun, 21 Jun, 22 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 350 km/s at 19/2039Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 18/2255Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 19/0859Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (20 Jun, 21 Jun, 22 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jun 068
Predicted   20 Jun-22 Jun 067/067/067
90 Day Mean        19 Jun 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jun  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/15

SpaceRef staff editor.