Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 June 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 Jun, 21 Jun, 22 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 350 km/s at 19/2039Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 18/2255Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 19/0859Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (20 Jun, 21 Jun, 22 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jun 068
Predicted 20 Jun-22 Jun 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 19 Jun 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jun 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/15