Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 June 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 19/1158Z from Region 2558 (N13W37). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Jun, 21 Jun, 22 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 703 km/s at 19/2005Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1032 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (20 Jun, 21 Jun, 22 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jun 085
Predicted 20 Jun-22 Jun 085/085/080
90 Day Mean 19 Jun 091

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun 010/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jun 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun 006/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 10/10/10