Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 June 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
19/0954Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Jun, 21 Jun,
22 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 332 km/s at
19/0818Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 19/1950Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 18/2356Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 110 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (20 Jun, 21 Jun) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jun 123
Predicted 20 Jun-22 Jun 125/130/135
90 Day Mean 19 Jun 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun 007/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jun 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun 008/010-014/018-012/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/35/30
Minor Storm 05/20/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 35/30/25
Major-severe storm 30/55/40