Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 July 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 Jul, 21 Jul, 22 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 403 km/s at 19/0343Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 18/2105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 18/2259Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1824 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (20 Jul, 22 Jul) and quiet levels on day two (21 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jul 067
Predicted 20 Jul-22 Jul 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 19 Jul 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul 006/008-005/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/25
Major-severe storm 25/15/25