Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 July 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 Jul, 21 Jul, 22 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 413 km/s at 19/1950Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 19/1538Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 19/1610Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (21 Jul, 22 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jul 071
Predicted   20 Jul-22 Jul 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        19 Jul 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul  012/015-007/008-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/30
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    40/25/35