Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 July 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 19/0007Z from Region 2665 (S06, L=118). There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (20 Jul) and expected to be very low on days two and three (21 Jul, 22 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak near 500 km/s. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 13630 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (20 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (21 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (22 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
Class M    05/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jul 073
Predicted   20 Jul-22 Jul 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        19 Jul 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul  006/005-008/008-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/30
Minor Storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    30/40/50