Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 July 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (20
Jul, 21 Jul, 22 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 347 km/s at
19/1220Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (20 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (21 Jul, 22 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jul 086
Predicted 20 Jul-22 Jul 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 19 Jul 132

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul 006/005-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 10/20/25