Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 January 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 19 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Jan, 21 Jan, 22 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 651 km/s at 19/0320Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 18/2307Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 18/2356Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 877 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (20 Jan), quiet to active levels on day two (21 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jan 080
Predicted   20 Jan-22 Jan 080/080/080
90 Day Mean        19 Jan 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan  011/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan  014/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan  011/015-009/012-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/40/30