Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 January 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 19 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Jan, 21 Jan, 22 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 400 km/s at 19/1047Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 18/2305Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 19/0911Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 641 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (20 Jan, 22 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (21 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jan 098
Predicted 20 Jan-22 Jan 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 19 Jan 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan 013/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 009/010-007/008-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/25
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/25/35
Major-severe storm 40/25/30