Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 January 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
January 19, 2015
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 January 2015

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 19 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2015

 

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 19/1013Z from Region 2259 (S16W74). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

 

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Jan, 21 Jan, 22 Jan).

 

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 386 km/s at 19/0922Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 19/0738Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 19/2055Z.

 

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (20 Jan, 21 Jan, 22 Jan).

 

III.  Event probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan

Class M    05/05/05

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

 

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           19 Jan 130

Predicted   20 Jan-22 Jan 125/125/125

90 Day Mean        19 Jan 157

 

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan  003/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan  008/010

Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan  007/008-007/008-007/008

 

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                20/20/20

Minor Storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           25/25/25

Major-severe storm    25/25/25

 

SpaceRef staff editor.