Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 19 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 19/1013Z from Region 2259 (S16W74). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Jan, 21 Jan, 22 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 386 km/s at 19/0922Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 19/0738Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 19/2055Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (20 Jan, 21 Jan, 22 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jan 130
Predicted 20 Jan-22 Jan 125/125/125
90 Day Mean 19 Jan 157
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 007/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
