Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 January 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 19 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
19/0351Z from Region 1660 (N11E12). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (20 Jan, 21 Jan, 22 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
456 km/s at 19/1715Z. Total IMF reached 7.7 nT at 18/2232Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5.8 nT at 18/2232Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 189 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to increase to unsettled to active conditions, with a chance for an
isolated minor storm interval, early on day one (20 Jan) in response to
the arrival of the 16 Jan CME. Predominately quiet conditions with a
chance for isolated unsettled periods is expected for days two and three
(21 – 22 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
Class M 05/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jan 107
Predicted 20 Jan-22 Jan 105/100/100
90 Day Mean 19 Jan 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan 007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 015/018-008/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/15/15
Minor Storm 15/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 55/20/20