Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 February 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 50 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 19/1942Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Feb, 21 Feb, 22 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 417 km/s at 19/2026Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 19/1526Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 19/1426Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 201 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (20 Feb) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Feb 096
Predicted 20 Feb-22 Feb 098/102/102
90 Day Mean 19 Feb 104

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 011/018-014/015-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/40/35
Minor Storm 30/25/15
Major-severe storm 10/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/10/10
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 65/60/50