Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 February 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 50 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 Feb, 21 Feb, 22 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 539 km/s at 19/2037Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 19/1959Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 19/2034Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 202 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (20 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (21 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Feb 073
Predicted 20 Feb-22 Feb 073/073/073
90 Day Mean 19 Feb 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb 012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 015/018-009/012-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/20
Minor Storm 15/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 50/40/30