Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 February 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 50 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 Feb, 21 Feb, 22 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 367 km/s at 18/2120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 281 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (20 Feb, 21 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Feb 070
Predicted   20 Feb-22 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        19 Feb 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb  009/012-015/016-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/15
Minor Storm           10/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    35/40/20