Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 February 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 50 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 19/0508Z from old Region 2497 (N13, L=220). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days one, two, and three (20 Feb, 21 Feb, 22 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 636 km/s at 18/2112Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 19/1748Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 18/2229Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 36465 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (21 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (22 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Feb 094
Predicted 20 Feb-22 Feb 100/105/110
90 Day Mean 19 Feb 108

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb 020/027
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb 011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 009/010-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/10