Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 50 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 18/2208Z from Region 2282 (N11W64). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Feb, 21 Feb, 22 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 462 km/s at 19/0626Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 18/2220Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 19/0140Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 401 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (20 Feb, 21 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (22 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Feb 119
Predicted 20 Feb-22 Feb 120/120/125
90 Day Mean 19 Feb 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb 015/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 006/005-006/005-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb