Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 December 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 Dec, 21 Dec, 22 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 577 km/s at 18/2102Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 19/0322Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 19/0259Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 361 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (20 Dec, 21 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (22 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Dec 070
Predicted 20 Dec-22 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 19 Dec 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec 012/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Dec 013/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec 008/008-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 25/25/10