Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 August 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Aug, 21 Aug, 22 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 381 km/s at 19/0357Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 18/2122Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 18/2127Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 162 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (21 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (22 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Aug 071
Predicted 20 Aug-22 Aug 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 19 Aug 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug 013/016-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/15
Minor Storm 15/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 50/40/20