Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 August 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 Aug, 21 Aug, 22 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 387 km/s at 19/0311Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 662 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (20 Aug, 21 Aug, 22 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Aug 068
Predicted 20 Aug-22 Aug 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 19 Aug 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug 007/007-007/007-006/006

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 15/15/15