Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 August 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Aug, 21 Aug, 22 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 391 km/s at 18/2316Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 19/1935Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 19/1405Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 230 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (21 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (22 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Aug 081
Predicted 20 Aug-22 Aug 080/082/082
90 Day Mean 19 Aug 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug 013/015-009/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/10/10
Minor Storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 15/10/15