Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 August 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on day one (20 Aug) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (21 Aug, 22 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 533 km/s at 19/2052Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 19/1325Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 19/1138Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 15877 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (21 Aug, 22 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
Class M 05/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Aug 098
Predicted 20 Aug-22 Aug 100/105/105
90 Day Mean 19 Aug 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug 010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug 016/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug 016/022-010/018-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/15/10
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 30/30/15
Major-severe storm 45/25/15