Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 August 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Aug,
21 Aug, 22 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
467 km/s at 19/1542Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 19/2035Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 19/1936Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (20 Aug), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (21 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (22
Aug).

III. Event probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Aug 111
Predicted 20 Aug-22 Aug 110/110/115
90 Day Mean 19 Aug 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug 011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug 019/025-008/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 20/05/05
Major-severe storm 30/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/20
Major-severe storm 30/15/15