Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 April 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 109 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Apr 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 19/2049Z from Region 2993 (N28, Lo=245). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Apr, 21 Apr, 22 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 563 km/s at 18/2321Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2218 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (20 Apr) and quiet levels on days two and three (21 Apr, 22 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 20 Apr-22 Apr
Class M 75/75/75
Class X 25/25/25
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Apr 135
Predicted 20 Apr-22 Apr 130/130/130
90 Day Mean 19 Apr 114

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Apr 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Apr 009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Apr-22 Apr 008/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Apr-22 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/15
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/20/20