Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 April 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 109 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Apr 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 Apr, 21 Apr, 22 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 353 km/s at 19/1247Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 19/1203Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 19/0943Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 538 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (20 Apr, 21 Apr, 22 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Apr-22 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Apr 073
Predicted   20 Apr-22 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        19 Apr 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Apr  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Apr  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Apr-22 Apr  005/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Apr-22 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/15/20