Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 April 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 109 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Apr 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 Apr, 21 Apr, 22 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 353 km/s at 19/1247Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 19/1203Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 19/0943Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 538 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (20 Apr, 21 Apr, 22 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 20 Apr-22 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Apr 073
Predicted 20 Apr-22 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 19 Apr 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Apr 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Apr 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Apr-22 Apr 005/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Apr-22 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/15/20