Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 September 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 261 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Sep 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (19 Sep, 20 Sep, 21 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 474 km/s at 18/0041Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 17/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 17/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1091 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (19 Sep, 20 Sep, 21 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 19 Sep-21 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Sep 066
Predicted 19 Sep-21 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 18 Sep 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Sep 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Sep 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Sep-21 Sep 005/005-004/005-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Sep-21 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10