Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 September 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Sep 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Sep, 20 Sep, 21 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 377 km/s at 18/1044Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 18/0738Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 18/1243Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 147 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (19 Sep), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (20 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (21 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 19 Sep-21 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Sep 083
Predicted 19 Sep-21 Sep 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 18 Sep 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Sep 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Sep 009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Sep-21 Sep 014/018-015/020-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Sep-21 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/40/15
Minor Storm 10/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/30/20