Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 September 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 261 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Sep 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
18/0841Z from Region 2169 (N05E53). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Sep,
20 Sep, 21 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
424 km/s at 17/2242Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 17/2316Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 18/1828Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (19 Sep, 20 Sep, 21
Sep).

III. Event probabilities 19 Sep-21 Sep
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Sep 120
Predicted 19 Sep-21 Sep 120/115/115
90 Day Mean 18 Sep 131

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Sep 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Sep 004/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Sep-21 Sep 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Sep-21 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/20/15