Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 October 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (19 Oct, 20 Oct, 21 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 467 km/s at 18/0315Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 18/2059Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 18/2059Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 55588 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (19 Oct, 20 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Oct 073
Predicted   19 Oct-21 Oct 074/078/082
90 Day Mean        18 Oct 081

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct  006/005-006/005-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/35
Minor Storm           01/01/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    10/10/55