Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 October 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Oct, 20 Oct, 21 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 802 km/s at 17/2214Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 52137 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Oct) and quiet levels on days two and three (20 Oct, 21 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Oct 077
Predicted 19 Oct-21 Oct 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 18 Oct 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct 012/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct 009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct 007/008-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/05/10