Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 October 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
October 18, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 17/2335Z from Region 2437 (S19E74). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate on days one, two, and three (19 Oct, 20 Oct, 21 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 490 km/s at 18/1804Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 18/0656Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 18/0758Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 770 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (19 Oct, 21 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (20 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Oct 120
Predicted 19 Oct-21 Oct 125/125/125
90 Day Mean 18 Oct 102

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct 020/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct 010/012-007/008-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/25
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/20
Minor Storm 30/20/30
Major-severe storm 30/20/30

SpaceRef staff editor.