Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 October 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to

18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24

hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at

18/0758Z from Region 2192 (S13E56). There are currently 3 numbered

sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate

with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three

(19 Oct, 20 Oct, 21 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic

field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar

wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of

532 km/s at 18/0615Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 18/1905Z. The maximum

southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 17/2347Z. Electrons greater

than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 458 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected

to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (19 Oct, 20 Oct)

and quiet to active levels on day three (21 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct

Class M    55/55/55

Class X    15/15/15

Proton     05/05/05

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           18 Oct 160

Predicted   19 Oct-21 Oct 165/170/175

90 Day Mean        18 Oct 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct  006/008

Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct  010/012

Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct  008/010-010/012-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                25/25/25

Minor Storm           05/05/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           30/30/30

Major-severe storm    30/30/40