Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 November 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov, 21 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/0614Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 384 km/s at 18/0613Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 180 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Nov), quiet to active levels on day two (20 Nov) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (21 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Nov 070
Predicted 19 Nov-21 Nov 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 18 Nov 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov 007/008-012/016-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/35/40
Minor Storm 05/20/25
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 25/50/60