Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 November 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov, 21 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagneticfield has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar win d speed reached a peak of 424 km/s at 17/2226Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 18/1121Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 18/1405Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 788 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov, 21 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Nov 072
Predicted   19 Nov-21 Nov 072/072/071
90 Day Mean        18 Nov 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov  001/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov  009/008-007/008-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/20
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/20/30