Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 November 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov, 21 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 470 km/s at 18/0506Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2355 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on days one, two, and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov, 21 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Nov 076
Predicted   19 Nov-21 Nov 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        18 Nov 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov  013/018-013/018-013/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    35/40/40