Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 November 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov, 21 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 491 km/s at 18/2037Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 18/1929Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 18/1930Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 989 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (19 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (20 Nov, 21 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Nov 108
Predicted 19 Nov-21 Nov 108/106/104
90 Day Mean 18 Nov 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov 011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov 013/018-007/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 45/10/10
Minor Storm 15/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/20/20
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 55/20/20