Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 November 2014
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
18/0809Z from Region 2209 (S13E07). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov, 21 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
518 km/s at 18/0121Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 18/2016Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 18/1119Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3095 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (19 Nov, 20
Nov, 21 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days
one, two, and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov, 21 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Nov 167
Predicted 19 Nov-21 Nov 170/175/180
90 Day Mean 18 Nov 146
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov 012/012-012/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/30
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 40/40/40
