Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 November 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
18/0415Z from Region 1897 (S18W30). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov,
21 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 475 km/s at
18/0514Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov, 21
Nov).

III. Event probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
Class M 40/40/30
Class X 05/05/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Nov 163
Predicted 19 Nov-21 Nov 160/155/150
90 Day Mean 18 Nov 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10