Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 May 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 18 May 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (19 May, 20 May, 21 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 478 km/s at 18/0126Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 17/2324Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 18/0126Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 630 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (19 May, 20 May, 21 May).

III.  Event probabilities 19 May-21 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 May 069
Predicted   19 May-21 May 069/069/068
90 Day Mean        18 May 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 May  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 May  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 May-21 May  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 May-21 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10